I’m often asked if soybeans will approach the $10 mark again, and my response is always a resounding yes. Soybeans are made in August, and for the past 30+ days it has been too dry through Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. We expect some good precipitation over the next week or two, but it’s just too late to improve yields for soybeans at this point in the game.

So today ahead of the monthly USDA Supply/Demand and Crop Production report, the November soybean futures contract is trading $9.65. What will it take to add another 35 cents in premium to the future’s price? Let’s start with a lower yield, the USDA will have to lower their projections. We will quickly get through today’s report and then turn the focus towards the big Quarterly Grain Stocks report on September 29. Soy stocks will diminish and demand will increase, and then you have the perfect storm of events to drive soybean futures back to the $10.00 trading range.

 

Nov ’17 Soybean Daily Chart