Cocoa, Cocoa and More Cocoa | RJO FuturesPosted 03/01/2017 3:35PM CT |
ICCO projects global cocoa production will hit 4.55 million tonnes, Ivory Coast has a record crop of 1.9 million tonnes and cocoa surplus hits a six-year high – you can’t get more bearish than that. With a steady increase in production the past year and very little demand, futures have not been able to turn around. A once bullish chart has little hope of a recovery at this point. Traders will monitor grindings for some direction moving forward. Europe and North American grindings are not expected to help the trade. Asian demand may give slight hikes in prices but will not be enough support to carrier the market higher. The fundamentals have not offered us any volatility and the technical haven’t been of much help either. 1890 is still support in the May contract for traders looking to buy on dips. A breakout above 1950 is needed to have cocoa head back to 2000. The range created in the second half of February will need to be met and broken to create any long-term change in the market from a technical standpoint.