RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Cocoa futures have retreated after recent highs. March cocoa futures broke above 2800 but failed to hold as traders took profits heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. As news broke that Europe would be easing its Covid-19 restrictions in certain areas the hope that cocoa demand would rise has supported the market this week. If businesses have “soft” re-openings and chocolate sales increase – cocoa prices could end the year above 2800.

The latest cocoa rally could also thank the recent announcements from multiple vaccine providers that they are getting closer to releasing their versions. The equity markets like the news, which carried over to most major commodities. Vaccines lead to re-openings of businesses, schools, restaurants and lifts on travel restrictions – all supportive to higher commodity prices. Technically, the chart is vulnerable to a sell-off after a major move this high, this quick. The news that caused this rally is positive for the long-term trade, but nothing certain in the short-term, so expect volatility through the end of the year.

Cocoa Mar ’21 Daily Chart
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Peter Mooses

Senior Market Strategist
Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.
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