This market hasn’t recovered above a prior corrective high since 05-Jan, until yesterday. With yesterday’s recovery above 03-Apr’s 145.15 high in the now-prompt Jul contract, the market has confirmed a bullish divergence in momentum that defines 27-Mar’s 138.55 low as the END of the decline from 24-Jan’s 161.55 high and start of a larger-degree correction or reversal higher. Yesterday’s break above 03-Apr’s 145.15 initial counter-trend high confirms at least the intermediate-term trend as up and leaves last Wed’s 139.90 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low that serves as our new short-term risk parameter from which non-bearish decisions like short-covers and cautious bullish punts can be objectively based and managed.
Hopefully the combination of this bullish divergence in momentum and the market’s proximity to the extreme lower recesses of the past four months’ range shown in the daily chart above will incite a trendier, more impulsive move north after weeks of lateral, boring, directionally-challenged price action. A trendier, more impulsive move higher similar to Dec-Jan’s rally is envisioned.
From a very long-term perspective however only a glance at the monthly log scale chart below is needed to appreciate the market’s position deep, deep within the middle of a contracting triangle pattern that arguably dates from 2008. Forecasting a “move” anything beyond a relatively short-term time frame like a few weeks is a total coin flip.
These issues considered, a cautious bullish policy and exposure are advised from at-the-market (145.90) with a failure below 139.90 required top negate this call. A potentially sharp, trendy return to the upper recesses of the 4-month range could lie in the balance.