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Continued Sugar Gains Reinforce Bullish Count, Define New S-T Risk

Posted 06/13/2019 7:58AM CT | RJO Market Insights

Yesterday and today’s clear breakout above recent 12.53-area resistance leaves Tue’s 12.27 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low this market is now minimally required to fail below to even defer, let alone threaten our broader bullish count introduced in 22-May’s Trading Strategies Blog Per such, this 12.27 level serves well as our new short-term risk parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.

Sugar Jul '19 240 Min Chart

 

Sugar Daily Chart

The extent and impulsive of the past few weeks’ rally provides excellent reinforcing evidence to our major base/reversal count predicated on:

  • a bullish divergence in daily momentum amidst
  • historically bearish sentiment levels
  • a clear 3-wave and thus corrective sell-off attempt from Oct’18’s 14.24 high to 21-May’s 11.36 low that
  • stalled within two ticks of the (11.38) 61.8% retrace of Aug-Oct’189’s 9.91 – 14.24 rally on a weekly log scale below.

These technical facts warn of a resumption of Aug-Oct’18’s initial (A- or 1st-Wave) rally to levels potentially well above 14.24 and in a trendy, impulsive manner similar to that initial rally.  These issues considered a bullish policy and longs from 11.94 OB recommended in 22-May’s Trading Strategies Blog remain advised with a failure below 12.27 now minimally required to defer or threaten this call enough to warrant taking profits and moving to the sidelines to circumvent the depths unknown of what we’d suspect is only an interim corrective setback.  In lieu of at least sub-12.27 weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains are expected straight away.

Sugar Weekly Chart

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