As the weather saga continues, each trading session has something new to offer. Mainly, we wonder if the Ridging will move further east into the heart of the growing area, or stay west and north above Interstate 80. The market fell after the USDA ‘s Supply and Demand report on July 12.
The numbers reflected were bearish, but keep in mind the numbers reflect the June 30 Quarterly and production reports. These numbers are as of June 1, when there were no weather issues. Things have changed now.
All eyes will be on the condition ratings report this afternoon. Trade ideas are for a 1% – 2% decline in the good/excellent ratings. This could mean about 165 or so yield. Pollination is still in process and therefore weather is still very important. On the negative side is South America. The crop is still big. The producer needs to sell his old crop to make room for the new crop that will be harvested. The selling probably won’t progress in Ernst until we approach the $4.00 level.
The market will have difficulty weakening much more as long as the weather forecast calls for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Dec ’17 Corn Daily Chart