In order for the corn market to see some sort of rally, it is going to take the large net short position to start covering, otherwise known as a short-covering rally. Unfortunately for farmers, there has been no reason for this to happen yet. Demand remains sluggish and traders still see ample supply ahead, despite flooding and slow planting in major areas of the corn belt. Temperatures look to warm up in the Midwest over the next 10-14 days, but there is still precipitation in the forecast as well, which is just as bad if not worse than temps remaining cold. February exports were down 4% from last year, this was the smallest monthly total since December of 2017, but year to date exports are seen at 28.7 million tonnes, up 43% from a year ago.
Brazil and Argentine summer month FOB offers continue to slide as production continues to be revised higher and higher. A trade deal with China could help, but no announcements are expected soon. Resistance comes in at 368 and 370 with support at 365 and 363.
Corn Jul ’19 Daily Chart