RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

March Corn finished up 6 1/2 at 366 3/4, 12 off the high and 5 1/2 up from the low. May Corn closed up 5 1/2 at 373 3/4. This was 5 1/4 up from the low and 12 1/2 off the high.

May corn traded to an early high of 386 1/4 up 4.8% on the day on rumors that the Trump administration would sign an executive order that would move the point of obligation from refiners to fuel blenders in return for a waiver allowing gasoline blends containing 15% ethanol to be sold year-round in the US. If enacted, it could dramatically increase demand for corn. As of now, the ethanol share of finished gasoline is running 10.1% so a 1.0% increase to 11.1% would equate to 530 million bushels. After the market spiked higher, news that the White House denied the rumor on the ethanol mandate change caused a sharp selloff in the market. Also providing support today were early forecast on the summer weather outlook calling for a drier and warmer bias in the US. The one caveat was if an El Nino develops, the chances would be greatly reduced of any type of drought problems. Earlier today, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicated that there has been significant warming over the equatorial Pacific over the last two weeks and is raising the chances for El Nino to fully develop in July or August. The open interest in corn went down 65,886 contracts yesterday and is down 178,000 contracts in the last eight trading days.

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