RJO FuturesCast

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Energies

Crude Oil 200 Day Moving Average is in Focus

Posted 11/01/2018 2:21PM CT | Phillip Streible

Despite having a solid year, up 7.38%, oil futures were the second worst performing commodity in the month of October, down 13.67%. With the market in a firm downtrend it is difficult to find anything to be bullish about. Looking at the technicals the ADX is rising showing the strength of the downtrend is intact and stochastics are in oversold territory indicating a bear market. On the supply side EIA crude stocks are sitting at 426 million barrels which is above the 5-year average at 418 million barrels. Imports have been declining and that is generally supportive but with the China trade war in a standoff its hard to say where the U.S. would be exporting. Cushing stocks have been steadily increasing showing demand maybe stalling.

Crude Oil Dec ’18 Daily Chart

Crude Oil Dec '18 Daily Chart

Phillip Streible

Early in his career Phillip began trading his own account as a screen trader focusing on the metals, grains and stock indices. He then became a Series 7 licensed financial consultant with A.G. Edwards. Later, he expanded his trading experience into a Series 3 licensed commodity broker with Investment Analysis Group. Most recently he was a senior market strategist at MF Global before joining RJO Futures in October 2011 as a senior commodities broker. As a senior commodities broker his goal is to show clients how to anticipate, recognize and react to bull and bear market conditions through the use of technical analysis techniques that help them to define risk.