RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Crude oil has continued its long liquidation from Tuesday’s high following the removal of U.S. National Security Advisor and war hawk, John Bolton, which relieved Middle Eastern anxiety and subsequently prompted speculation of an increase in Iranian crude oil exports through sanction relief. OPEC, in their monthly report, adjusted their 2020 global demand forecast from 1.14 million to 1.08 million barrels a day (bpd) amid a continued slowdown in global growth. In addition, OPEC advised oil producing nations to continue curtailing production in order to avert a global glut. This comes amidst the EIA revising their 2019 world demand growth by 120,000 bpd and their 2020 forecast by 30,000 bpd. U.S. oil production forecast was downgraded to from 1.28 to 1.25 million bpd notwithstanding the U.S. becoming the world’s largest oil exporter, surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia, amid record shale production. However, with expectations of tempered demand growth and lower economic expectations coupled with ongoing geopolitical risks, oil prices are set for extended near term volatility. The market in the early session was signaling immediate term oversold but remains bearish trend with today’s range seen between 53.89 – 58.32.

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Alexander Turro

Senior Market Strategist
Alex began his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade after graduating with a BA/BS from Indiana University. He then went on to work for a proprietary trading software company before joining RJO Futures as a Market Strategist.
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