RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Feel free to contact John here to leave a question or comment on his video.


Transcript for: Daily Market Update – Currency Futures – 11/3/2017


Good morning traders, John Caruso coming to you here for the morning of November 3rd. We just recently did get the October unemployment number out this morning, we did see a little bit of a miss on the headline number. 261,000 jobs created in October versus an expected 310,000. We did see wages slip as well a little bit, 2.4 percent from an expected 2.7 percent. However we did see a down tick in the unemployment rate and that’s largely because the workforce is shrinking. So on the surface here not a very good number. They did revise the September number higher, so that is something to kind of take note of.


US Dollar Market

Right now the US dollars fairly muted reaction. The cash market is at 94 70 flat up 2 ticks right now, the euro is trading 116 70 down 19. We still know that the Fed is going to raise, as far as we know, as far as the Fed Funds futures are pricing, and the Fed is set to raise interest rates in December. Right now they’re pricing in about a 90 percent chance that we do get a quarter point bump in D. So we’re watching that very closely. I’ve got topside resistance in the US dollar up around 95 20 and support down along 94. So that’s probably the immediate term range that you want to manage when you’re trading the currencies.


British Pound Market

Looking at the British Pound, the British Pound got hammered yesterday from top to bottom. It was down over 259 points. We did see, the Bank of England, they did raise interest rates however they did what we call a dovish rate hike. They raised interest rates a quarter percentage point, however they’ve kind of forecasted that this is a one-off event and that this is not the beginning of a series of interest rate hikes. So British Pound didn’t like that. However, interesting enough, we did hold long term support. The low in the pound yesterday was 130 53, I’ve got a support bar of 130 48 which is the old October swing low. So interesting, we’re going to watch that level very carefully.


Japanese Yen Market

Lastly I’m going to hit on the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen seems to be on some longer-term support, however it’s having a hard time picking a direction at the moment. The immediate term trend is still down, we’re trading 8790 we are up slightly versus the US dollar. I do have longer-term support at 8750 so you really want to watch that 8750 mark, if we close below there, it looks like we could extend lower on the Japanese yen. However if we can stay above 8750 I’d say for the next week that we could be seeing the beginning of a turn, a bullish turn, in the Japanese yen. So keep that in mind.


That’s all I have for you, feel free to reach out to me at the trade desk we’ll be around all day. Thanks!

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
Read More