RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Feel free to contact Stephen here to leave a question or comment on his video.


Transcript for: Daily Market Update – Grain Futures – 11/24/2017

Hello traders. Good morning, I am Stephen Davis senior market strategist.  It is Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving to all of you from all of us here at RJO. What a great family holiday for us and our families.

Okay, this week we all heard how Thanksgiving dinners are cheaper than they have been in the last three, four, five years so these lower prices of grains that we talk about each week are following through to the consumer here and the cheapest Thanksgiving dinner we’ve had in three four or five years. Turkey prices are three to four percent lower year-over-year. Milk dairy all of the cows that are in California Wisconsin are lower prices here for the US consumer. And then cranberries, what a big, big supply of cranberries in our country here pointing to lower prices Wisconsin a big cranberry producer it just reminds me of all the corn and the wheat that are in our markets here in the USA. So lower Thanksgiving prices for all of the US consumer, that’s a good thing.


Corn Market

Okay, the corn market. Our first chart on corn you’ve seen we’ve rallied here a little bit today with today’s option expiration. A lot of strike prices at 3:45 where we’re at right now and then some analysts think 350 a five cent higher move in corn here today what makes most of these options worthless and that’s what the market does is punishes the participants as much as it can, however I don’t think there’s enough activity here today for corn to go five cents higher in the next couple of hours we’ll see about that. Okay I got up this morning first things I heard on my radio program is ethanol production real strong in USA and La nina so we’re talking about these issues each day. China now going with their move to ethanol sooner or later. China’s going to be buying us corn this is going to be a big story, follow along on this. China’s going to need a lot of ethanol as they’re building ethanol plants just like we are so we’re going to talk more about this.  Then La nina, it’s dry in Argentina. Argentina is the third biggest corn shipper in the world today so we’ll keep talking about that.


Soybean Market

Okay, the soybean market. If there’s anything you’re going to learn from me or I’d suggest you learn for me by listening following to me or working with me be long soy beans the day before Thanksgiving and the day after. It’s a strong seasonal and soybeans to rally here. You can see the chart we’ve rallied up I don’t know that a lots going to happen today but a nice rally and I think it’s going to continue so we’ll keep talking about it. I love the charts of soybean meal in here and the demand for soybean meal. Argentina is the biggest shipper in the world today of soybean meal. It’s dry there, keep an eye on this now. La nina tells us we got a seventy to seventy five percent chance of La nina this year. If it’s hot and dry in January in February these markets are going to rally. Soybeans and soybean meal included so we’ll keep talking about that. China, they’re going with quality of life as well as well as GDP and quality of life means buying US soybeans that their protein that the world wants the world consumer wants and the consumer gets what he wants.


Wheat Market

Lastly here, the wheat market we’ve had some rallies but there’s certainly a lot of wheat in the world and we don’t get any follow-through and until we do I think you know there’s a ten cent bounce short covering and wheat but that’s about it.


Everybody have an excellent weekend.


Stephen Davis

Stephen E. Davis is a 25-year+ veteran of the markets, who has been a retail broker with RJO Futures since 1998. He is a graduate of the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota and started as a runner at the Mid America Commodity Exchange in 1981. Davis' past experience involved working with firms Stotler Grain, O'Connor Grain, Dean Witter, R.J. O'Brien and Rosenthal Collins. His trading floor experience in agriculture and financial markets is the foundation of his brokerage approach. Throughout his career, he has worked with clients ranging from retail clients to some very large institutional clients. "My focus is on price and my philosophy is that chart patterns will show you where the big money is made," he says. In his time as a broker, he has seen an evolution of the trading process. "As all of these markets move from the trading floor to the computer screen, we are all like locals on the trading floor-and we do not have to pay millions of dollars for our memberships." His advisory experience includes CQG, Moore Research, Dennis Gartman (The Gartman Letter), The Hightower Report, Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.