RJO FuturesCast

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Transcript for: Daily Market Update – Grain Futures – 8/4/2017

Hello Traders, I am Stephen Davis, Senior Market Strategist RJO Futures. Friday morning here to talk to you about the grain markets today.


Corn Market


So we’re still continuing to see corn pollinate, something that’s really going to help corn here is after pollination is cool temperatures. Really helps the yield on corn. This morning on my commute in from my beautiful home in the suburbs here in Chicago, its 57 degrees, very comfortable temperatures here this morning. As the weather looks out into the 10 day forecast, we do have cooler temperatures. We still need a good soaking rain. In parts of these corn belts in the past they haven’t been soaking rains. The clouds have been moving around this summer and the rain just hasn’t seemed to be falling. So we still need that but cooler temperatures, and corn is still pollinating, it looks pretty good going forward. Our first chart is corn you can see it really in good support. So I’d be careful about being short corn. Next week, August 10th, is the August crop report. This is a very high risk report. We’ll talk about that next Friday.


Soybean Market


These crop conditions every Monday night, they’re like many crop reports. I just mentioned, we have a high risk report August 10th but these crop reports here, the end of July and into August, they come out on Monday nights. This past Monday here, crop conditions on soybeans improved an excellent 2-3 percentage points. Surprised all the analysts. And then Tuesday morning soybeans are 35 cents lower. That’s a lot. Here’s our next chart on soybeans. Remember how a couple weeks ago I had this same chart up here, now we’ve gone down and filled this gap in soybeans. This is what the markets do. I think we can rally from here on the soybeans and let’s see if I’m right on this, and when I’m right. But this chart is textbook. Gap higher, now we’re back down and filled that gap. We’re a little bit higher this morning on corn and beans, we’ll see what they do going forward. Demand is very stout for soybeans. Yesterday export sales, old crop soybeans just stellar. Continue to be very impressive. With all the soybeans that Brazil has, we’re still selling US soybeans. That’s a good story, I think it’s going to continue.


Wheat Market


Our next chart of wheat, you can see we’re down in very good support. I’d be careful about being short wheat in here as well. Spring wheat harvest has started and it’s about 10 percent complete. A lot of times when harvest gets 50 percent complete, the green light goes on to buy and markets rally. We’ll talk about that on corn and beans here going forward too. Sunday night weather, going to be really important. All of a sudden we have cool temperatures here in the corn belt, not extreme heat like we had a few weeks ago, and that’s good for the crops. Everybody have an excellent weekend!

Stephen Davis

Stephen E. Davis is a 25-year+ veteran of the markets, who has been a retail broker with RJO Futures since 1998. He is a graduate of the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota and started as a runner at the Mid America Commodity Exchange in 1981. Davis' past experience involved working with firms Stotler Grain, O'Connor Grain, Dean Witter, R.J. O'Brien and Rosenthal Collins. His trading floor experience in agriculture and financial markets is the foundation of his brokerage approach. Throughout his career, he has worked with clients ranging from retail clients to some very large institutional clients. "My focus is on price and my philosophy is that chart patterns will show you where the big money is made," he says. In his time as a broker, he has seen an evolution of the trading process. "As all of these markets move from the trading floor to the computer screen, we are all like locals on the trading floor-and we do not have to pay millions of dollars for our memberships." His advisory experience includes CQG, Moore Research, Dennis Gartman (The Gartman Letter), The Hightower Report, Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.