RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

September silver is trading $16.00 up about 60 cents on the day. Metals are strong across the board since they hit lows early this month. There are a lot of factors contributing to the rise in silver price. First, The US Fed held the rate unchanged in July 27, 2017 minutes which trigger downside pressure in US dollar index. Furthermore, don’t expect a rate boost until the December 2017 to fulfill a three rate boost as projected. The upbeat economic outlook and the demand for silver both from a precious metals aspect, as well as industrial use, help support silver. The lack of inflation concerns help drive silver higher.  

From a technical prospective, silver is poised for further gain. Last FuturesCast, I put up a very long term chart showing a formidable long term support around 15.00. I did state, “DO NOT expect silver to take out 15.00 level anytime soon.” Given current price action, silver needs to continue to climb above 17.00 to attract more momentum type buying.

The Commitment of Traders with Options Report (COT) that was measured yesterday and will be released this Friday, would likely show more fund buying activity based on price action. Just looking at the net change holding of the non-reportable and non-commercial position, the same group held 50,527 as of June 27. Since then, for the same group of traders, the net position bottomed July 18 to 22,862. Again, this net position would likely grow this Friday. 


Silver Weekly Chart

Silver Weekly Chart

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Eli Tesfaye

Senior Market Strategist
Eli started his career in the futures and options market while he was in graduate school finishing up his MBA in 2003. Eli specializes in Automatic trading strategies and systematic options trading strategies in futures market. He has been Series 3 license holder since 2005. Eli's is an avid reader, runner, and yoga practitioner.
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