RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

U.S. dollar futures moved 20 points lower during Thursday’s session, bumping up against resistance at the 98 level earlier in the week and reversing to the downside. Selling continued into Friday’s session, with the dollar index trading along 97.45 during the first hour of pit trading. The FOMC met this week and announced that interest rates would remain unchanged for the time being. However, the developing coronavirus situation is spooking investors, and supporting the idea that the stock market cannot remain at current levels. Should stocks continue lower, there is an increasing probability that the Fed will continue quantitative easing and begin speaking about additional rate cuts. This will serve to weaken the dollar as investors price in more QE. The euro is in a win-by-default situation as the dollar moves lower despite European GDP growing by just 0.1% in the fourth quarter. German GDP is set to be released on February 14th. The British pound continues to look attractive to investors. The official Brexit date is today, January 31st. This situation has caused the pound to remain on the defensive over the past 3 years, and with the Bank of England holding interest rates steady this week, it would appear the pound has bottomed and is positioned to trade higher.

British Pound Mar ’20 Daily Chart

Ian Bannon

Ian’s interest in trading began with the stock market after graduating from Purdue University with a degree in Economics and a focus in international business. A natural strength for numbers, trends, and pattern recognition, in conjunction with a curiosity to understand the big picture has enabled a desire to understand market behavior. Ian managed his own stock account before moving into the futures arena because of the wide scope of trade-able sectors and the ample amount of fundamental support behind these larger-scope markets.