Dollar: The dollar has found its footing after yesterday’s pullback, but it will clearly take direction from the tone of today’s critical US jobs data. There is some potential for a negative surprise in non-farm payrolls given the sluggish ADP reading yesterday, but the dollar may be more interested in whether average hourly earnings can see a better than expected increase. With other major safe-haven assets on the defensive this morning, the dollar could put together a sizable rebound “if” there are strong across the board readings in today’s jobs report. However, a weak set of US jobs data could lead to a re-test of last month’s low for the move fairly quickly. Near term support is at 9555 as the dollar needs to see good data this morning to lift decisively clear of its recent lows.
Sep ’17 Dollar Index Daily Chart
Euro: The euro has kept within a tight trading range early today that is in contrast to its volatile price action over the past few sessions. While there have been mixed messages from ECB officials, recent strength in Euro zone data points has been underscored by today’s positive readings on German and French industrial output. A strong US jobs report could lead to end of week long liquidation and profit taking, but the Euro looks to have further upside to go before longer-term upmove runs out of steam. Near term support is at 11438 as the euro would likely be the major beneficiary of a sluggish US jobs report.
Sep ’17 Euro Daily Chart