RJO FuturesCast

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Yesterday’s break below 29-Oct’s 98.68 low reaffirms and reinstates what we believe is a new secular bear market from Aug’20’s 99.79 high and leaves 05-Nov’s 98.945 high in its wake as the latest larger-degree corrective high and our new long-term parameter to which longer-term institutional players can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bearish policy and exposure.

On a shorter-term basis and as a result of yesterday’s steep, uninterrupted plunge, the closest we can currently come to a shorter-term risk parameter is Mon’s 98.83 minor 1st-Wave low and a level this market is required to recoup to nullify the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bearish count.  Given the 3rd-wave manner of yesterday’s plunge however, we fully anticipate at least a minor corrective hiccup somewhere along the line and subsequent new lows thereafter before we can speculate on the possible end of the latest portion of the bear from 05-Nov’s 98.945 high.  Following such conditions, shorter-term traders would be able to trail tighter protective buy-stops to a level just above the high of that smaller-degree corrective pop.

On a longer-term basis, the daily (above) and weekly (below) charts show the trend as down on all scales.  As discussed numerous times since its introduction in 16Feb21’s Technical Blog, we believe this market is reversing a bull trend that has spanned a generation, exposing a move south that could span years or even a generation.  The market has clearly identified levels from 98.945 to 99.12-to-99.16 and Aug’20’s 99.79 high that we can now require it to recoup to even defer, let alone threaten this massive bearish call.  Until a recovery above at least 98.945 is proven, further and possibly steep, accelerated losses remain expected as there is no support.  The only levels of any technical merit currently exist only ABOVE the market in the form of prior corrective highs like 98.945 and former support-turned-resistance like the 99.12-to-99.16-area.

In sum, a full and aggressive bearish policy remains advised with a recovery above at least 98.83 and preferably 98.945 required to threaten or negate this count to the point of paring or neutralizing exposure.  In lieu of such strength, further and possibly relentless losses are anticipated.

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