RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

The Japanese yen has largely been caught in the crossfire of the U.S./China Trade War. Any positive news that comes out of this weekend’s summit between Trump and Xi Jinping should be a “win” for the Japanese yen. Japan saw their October retail sales figures come out on Tuesday at a very strong 3.5% vs an expected 2.6%. More Japanese data was released overnight and was fairly mixed, however they did see the strongest jump in their factory output data since 2015.  We’ve also heard some speak out of the BOJ, suggesting that Japans extended period of low interest rates have actually begun to have a negative impact on economic activity – that’s was a slightly hawkish statement out of the BOJ and could imply that they may begin to allow their interest rates (JGB Yields) float higher.  I’d be hard pressed to suggest that I’m bullish on the yen, but I do expect a turn back higher in the Japanese currency on the back of strong data, and perhaps some sense that the US and China are beginning to find some common ground on trade. The yen remains bearish trend, with immediate downside to 87.60 and upside to 88.50 – that’s the immediate term range that should be risk managed.

Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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