RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

The Japanese yen has largely been caught in the crossfire of the U.S./China Trade War. Any positive news that comes out of this weekend’s summit between Trump and Xi Jinping should be a “win” for the Japanese yen. Japan saw their October retail sales figures come out on Tuesday at a very strong 3.5% vs an expected 2.6%. More Japanese data was released overnight and was fairly mixed, however they did see the strongest jump in their factory output data since 2015.  We’ve also heard some speak out of the BOJ, suggesting that Japans extended period of low interest rates have actually begun to have a negative impact on economic activity – that’s was a slightly hawkish statement out of the BOJ and could imply that they may begin to allow their interest rates (JGB Yields) float higher.  I’d be hard pressed to suggest that I’m bullish on the yen, but I do expect a turn back higher in the Japanese currency on the back of strong data, and perhaps some sense that the US and China are beginning to find some common ground on trade. The yen remains bearish trend, with immediate downside to 87.60 and upside to 88.50 – that’s the immediate term range that should be risk managed.

Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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