Coming in to morning trade, the March S&P E-mini is up $4.50 at 2646.50 and the tech heavy Nasdaq up 18 points at 6718.50. The markets have been quiet this week trading in a range, but as the week continues we should start seeing some volatility especially tomorrow afternoon with the Fed announcement on rates at 1:00 and Powell’s press conference to follow at 1:30. Consensus is that the Fed will stay pat on rates but the market already priced that in. Traders will be all ears during the press conference to see if Powell leans dovish or hawkish. My guess is that he will say the economy is still doing well but going forward any rate increases will be solely dependent on economic reports. 

One thing the market has going for it is that any news regarding China and the end of tariffs is going to be viewed as a positive simply because any news is considered than no news. Mnuchin tweeted earlier this morning that he expects to see significant progress in China trade talks this week. That quote should provide an underlying bid in the market and anybody who is currently short will have their finger on the button to cover all shorts. Technically, the market looks good with underlying support near last week’s low at 2612.50 on the downside and 2677 on the upside.   Again, pushed into the market I would recommend being a buyer on dips, and looking for the market to take out 2677 and reach 2700 at a minimum in rather quickly.  Traders should continue to watch and monitor headlines that hit the tape for quick moves. 

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar ’19 Daily Chart

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar '19 Daily Chart

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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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