RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

May cocoa has attempted a comeback this trading week. Looking at a daily chart, 2050 is an important level – it has been hit three times of late. 2065 and 2080 are also levels to monitor, and Wednesday’s high was 2079. Between the technicals and the fundamentals, this contract should be trading around 2200. Fundamentally, reports out of Ivory Coast are anticipating a decrease in port arrivals in the short-term. Mid-crop harvest may not be as good as once expected, beans/pods may be damaged from sitting around and not being purchased. When the large crop came in, we saw a lack of storage space leading to a crop quality decline. The weather has also played a part in this recent small rally; the question is will it have a negative effect on production in the long-term? The COT may give us another push up this week – multi-year highs in speculative shorts, oversold levels, low prices, all are reasons we can see buyers re-entering the market.

 

May Cocoa Daily Chart

 

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Peter Mooses

Senior Market Strategist
Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.
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