Economy

Futures Market Forecast w/John Caruso – 09/30/2020

Posted 09/30/2020 8:23AM CTJohn Caruso

Global Equities:
USA- SP500 -0.25%, NQ -0.34%, RTY -0.14%

Europe- GER -0.37%, FRA -0.26%, UK +0.04%

China- Shanghai -0.20%, KOSPI +0.86%

A fairly mixed bag overnight – nothing of note outside of the SP500 failing again from the top level of our range. 

Commodities:
Gold -0.53% remains BULLISH TREND, but currently NEGATIVE MOMENTUM. We still think there’s a likely re-entry level from better prices – we’ll wait an watch here. 

Silver: down -1.25% back to BULLISH TREND (above 23.30 is our bull/bear line), but currently NEGATIVE Momentum – signaled immediate overbought yesterday following Monday/Tuesday’s rally. 

Copper +0.75% to 3.0130 remains BULLISH TREND with NEUTRAL MOMENTUM. 

Energy-
Crude Oil broke down yesterday (attempting to recover this morning) – no established direction trend here. Not doing anything with Oil here. 

Nat Gas suffered a big breakdown yesterday following its massive rally in the previous week. Immediate downside to 2.29 and 2.74 upside -Wide and trading range being established in Nat Gas.

Currencies-
US Dollar- +0.17% to 94.06 (Cash) remains BEARISH TREND but now with POSITIVE MOMENTUM. USD is clearly the glue that’s holding the market together. The inverse correlation to US Equities is nearly 1:1 (and has been since June). The Q3 weak dollar theme has helped propel markets higher through Q3 2020.  But on the eve of Q4, can the buck hold its head under water for just a little while longer? I’m not so sure. Especially with the rising probability of more “risk off” Scenario 4 to come. Remember the USD is a top LONG position within that economic backdrop. A very pivotal position the dollar remains in at the moment cozied up next to 94.00 with downside back to 93.23 this morning and upside to 94.83. 

EUR/USD- down -0.28% to 1.1720 remains BULLISH TREND but NEGATIVE MOMENTUM.  Last week’s breakdown alongside Gold may signal another 1-2 week battle with some more downside risk. 

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
Read More