RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Daily Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 02/15/2019

Posted 02/15/2019 11:12AM CT | John Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

We’re back to bad news is good news….

That doesn’t really make sense does it? Well it does to market participants because what it means is that the worse the economic data reported is, the easier and more accommodating the Federal Reserve will be.  Maybe this is a viable strategy for 2019 hedge fund managers?  No.  The data is not improving, and the Fed is NOWHERE near as dovish today as they likely will be 6 months from now.  

Isn’t it funny?

Isn’t it funny that when stocks crashed in Q4 2018, you were told boogie-man tales of “Rising Interest Rates” and “U.S./China trade war fears” and “mid-term elections jitters” were to blame. Fact check that.  Because now as the macro data piles in, everybody is starting to realize that under the surface it was the CYCLE SLOWING stupid! Retail Sales -1.2% in Dec, PPI -0.1%, and this morning’s Industrial Production Data were quite rancid.  IP contracted -0.6% vs exp 0.1% exp.  Wall Street has now taken down its GDP estimates considerably in light of the data, and we’re still expecting to see a 1 handle on Q4 2018 GDP at months end.  This is why we use our cycle analysis – its just as important to know where you’ve been to help find out where you’re going. 

Where are we going?

Once again this is our argument to be Long Bonds, Long Gold, Short USD, and Long Yen.  We’re about to pivot come Q2 into a Growth Slowing/Inflation Accelerating environment, which subsequently is the most bullish cycle for Gold, Bonds, and even Energy – add Oil to your list of long ideas.  So if you bought treasuries and silver alongside of us earlier this week, you’re making money right alongside of us.  Well done. I did a brief write-up on the USD/EUR relationship for the website today below if you want to check it out (however, nothing we haven’t already discussed in here already).  Good luck. 

Actionable Ranges:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2675

2763

Nasdaq Comp

Bearish

7192

7471

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.75%

VIX

Bullish

15.3

20.09

Oil

Bearish

51.89

55.62

Gold

Bullish

1302

1326

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.4

97.17

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.08

1.11

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:

  • -$100K simulated trading capital
  • -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
  • -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.

 

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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