Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 02/20/2019

Posted 02/20/2019 10:30AM CTJohn Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

Gold and silver with a big range extension higher yesterday.  Precious metals perform the best in the Quad of Growth decel. and inflation accel.  As global yields continue to decline, coupled with a weaker USD (-35pts yesterday), is the most bullish scenario for gold. 

Earnings Season

Checking in on earnings season 412/500 SP500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y growth rate of 10.85% which has slowed from 12-14% just last week and can continue to slow from here.  3 sectors are reporting negative earnings (Materials, Financials, Utilities).  Also remember – Q4 2018’s comps are going to be far easier than Q1 and Q2 of 2019’s…. why?  Simple, those companies now have to compare against the Trump tax cuts.  Tax cuts amplified earnings and subsequently the underlying security prices higher, and will likely amplify them lower as earnings growth begins to tip over on a y/y basis.  None of this, in my opinion is priced into markets by the way. 

USD/JPY is flirting with a trend shift.  This is the upside of the Yen Futures (6J), so we have to be careful here.  We’ll likely watch it thru the end of the week and look for signs of life. 

FOMC Minutes later today and Durable Goods (Dec), Existing Home Sales, and the EIA Petroleum Report due out tomorrow. 

Actionable Ranges:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2692

2792

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7210

7503

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.72%

VIX

Bullish

14.89

20.03

Oil

Neutral

51.89

58.03

Nat Gas

Bearish

2.5

2.89

Gold

Bullish

1318

1352

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.92

97.25

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.0925

1.111

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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