RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Daily Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 02/20/2019

Posted 02/20/2019 10:30AM CT | John Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

Gold and silver with a big range extension higher yesterday.  Precious metals perform the best in the Quad of Growth decel. and inflation accel.  As global yields continue to decline, coupled with a weaker USD (-35pts yesterday), is the most bullish scenario for gold. 

Earnings Season

Checking in on earnings season 412/500 SP500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y growth rate of 10.85% which has slowed from 12-14% just last week and can continue to slow from here.  3 sectors are reporting negative earnings (Materials, Financials, Utilities).  Also remember – Q4 2018’s comps are going to be far easier than Q1 and Q2 of 2019’s…. why?  Simple, those companies now have to compare against the Trump tax cuts.  Tax cuts amplified earnings and subsequently the underlying security prices higher, and will likely amplify them lower as earnings growth begins to tip over on a y/y basis.  None of this, in my opinion is priced into markets by the way. 

USD/JPY is flirting with a trend shift.  This is the upside of the Yen Futures (6J), so we have to be careful here.  We’ll likely watch it thru the end of the week and look for signs of life. 

FOMC Minutes later today and Durable Goods (Dec), Existing Home Sales, and the EIA Petroleum Report due out tomorrow. 

Actionable Ranges:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2692

2792

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7210

7503

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.72%

VIX

Bullish

14.89

20.03

Oil

Neutral

51.89

58.03

Nat Gas

Bearish

2.5

2.89

Gold

Bullish

1318

1352

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.92

97.25

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.0925

1.111

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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