Gold and silver with a big range extension higher yesterday. Precious metals perform the best in the Quad of Growth decel. and inflation accel. As global yields continue to decline, coupled with a weaker USD (-35pts yesterday), is the most bullish scenario for gold.
Earnings Season
Checking in on earnings season 412/500 SP500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y growth rate of 10.85% which has slowed from 12-14% just last week and can continue to slow from here. 3 sectors are reporting negative earnings (Materials, Financials, Utilities). Also remember – Q4 2018’s comps are going to be far easier than Q1 and Q2 of 2019’s…. why? Simple, those companies now have to compare against the Trump tax cuts. Tax cuts amplified earnings and subsequently the underlying security prices higher, and will likely amplify them lower as earnings growth begins to tip over on a y/y basis. None of this, in my opinion is priced into markets by the way.
USD/JPY is flirting with a trend shift. This is the upside of the Yen Futures (6J), so we have to be careful here. We’ll likely watch it thru the end of the week and look for signs of life.
FOMC Minutes later today and Durable Goods (Dec), Existing Home Sales, and the EIA Petroleum Report due out tomorrow.
Actionable Ranges:
Market |
Trend |
Range Low |
Range High |
|
|
|
|
SP500 |
Bearish |
2692 |
2792 |
Nasdaq Comp |
Neutral |
7210 |
7503 |
10yr Yield |
Bearish |
2.60% |
2.72% |
VIX |
Bullish |
14.89 |
20.03 |
Oil |
Neutral |
51.89 |
58.03 |
Nat Gas |
Bearish |
2.5 |
2.89 |
Gold |
Bullish |
1318 |
1352 |
USD (Cash) |
Neutral |
95.92 |
97.25 |
EUR/USD |
Bearish |
1.11 |
1.14 |
USD/JPY |
Bearish |
1.0925 |
1.111 |
Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email.
Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.
RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:
- -$100K simulated trading capital
- -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
- -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.