Daily Futures Trading Update
Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 05/06/2019Posted 05/06/2019 11:24AM CT |
China got smoked overnight -5.6%, following a 6% correction over the last 2 weeks. Copper was an interesting tell over the last 2 weeks as well – down 6.5% from its April high, suggesting there was some risk on deck in the market. The NFP report Friday was very strong, however, Macro markets did not like President Trumps tweet over the weekend of raising tariffs to 25%:
“For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars….”
“….of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!”
Interesting enough, the Chinese cycle and data is suggestive of a Growth Accel/Inflation Accel environment for China – we’ll monitor the direction of the Chinese data because the Shanghai has broken it 3-6 month trend line.
U.S. equities: the S&P 500 futures tapped the low end of our range last night (2890) on the Trump tweet. Funny that all we heard out of D.C. for the past 4 months was about super, awesome, fantastic trade deals and now we get to the 11th hour and we find out that’s not the case. Total market volume on Friday was -7% vs the prior day, and -6% mo/mo. The immediate-term trade line broke last night, but we’re bouncing hard off the open. The bullish trend line remains firmly in tack.
Gold: 1270-75 is our buy area. We’ll likely be getting in at some point relatively soon.
Bonds: We own(ed) bonds – we’re covering some today with yields at the low end of the range.
US Dollar: bouncing slightly this morning, but may very well be in a topping process. The upside down of the dollar is Euro, and is carrying the 2nd largest short position (VIX is #1) in CFTC reported positioning.
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