Bull and Bear Market

27% implied volatility PREMIUM vs 30 day realized – what does this mean?  It means Wall Street is pretty well hedged against more near-term market volatility.  We like shorting into an implied volatility DISCOUNT – because that means the market has moved into a state of complacency and is discounting the idea of any more near-term volatility vs 30-day realized. According to our market range on the S&P 500 – you could absolutely see a 2-3% bounce in the near-term.  Watch out for Richard Clarida banging on the gong later today – could be a catalyst for an afternoon market pump in stocks.  Stay patient. 

Oil: flat on the day, following a fairly strong bounce off of the lows late yesterday – watch OVX – the Oil volatility index is now bullish trend above 36.00= Not usually indicative of higher prices in the Energy space

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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