RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Bull and Bear Market

27% implied volatility PREMIUM vs 30 day realized – what does this mean?  It means Wall Street is pretty well hedged against more near-term market volatility.  We like shorting into an implied volatility DISCOUNT – because that means the market has moved into a state of complacency and is discounting the idea of any more near-term volatility vs 30-day realized. According to our market range on the S&P 500 – you could absolutely see a 2-3% bounce in the near-term.  Watch out for Richard Clarida banging on the gong later today – could be a catalyst for an afternoon market pump in stocks.  Stay patient. 

Oil: flat on the day, following a fairly strong bounce off of the lows late yesterday – watch OVX – the Oil volatility index is now bullish trend above 36.00= Not usually indicative of higher prices in the Energy space

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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