RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Daily Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 07/11/2019

Posted 07/11/2019 9:42AM CT | John Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

Some reflation hit the commodity space yesterday with oil, copper, and gold leading higher as the Powell doubled down on his dove speak in front of Congress yesterday.  The USD took a hit yesterday on Powell (-0.45%), and has continued lower overnight (despite the recent CPI data which came in hotter than consensus).  Our call is that we’ve seen the peak for the intermediate to longer term in the USD – but we expect it to make feeble attempts to hold the upside bias – manage the range. 

We’d fade most of this bounce in commodities here in the near-term, specifically oil and copper.  Note – at some point we’ll be bullish on the entire commodity complex as the USD suffers further downside into the Fall and we move back to a Growth Slowing/Inflation Accelerating set-up, but we’re not there yet. 

Asian equities bounced following a string of consecutive down days – the Kospi (South Korea) lead +1.00% and the Shanghai, Heng Seng +0.08%, and 0.81% respectively. 

Growth is slowing, that’s not up for debate anymore.  Our q/q forecasts for Q2 GDP is running at 1.33% (Seasonally adjusted), but the Fed continues to eat the Bears lunch every chance they get.  Corrective set back are warranted and likely from here, but undoubtedly the technical structure of equities is strong and projecting higher prices. 

The Fed is cutting, that’s no longer up for debate.  They’re clearly attempting to front run something (we think Q2 earnings and growth/inflation slowing domestically) – are they dovish enough and will they be able to bend and smooth economic gravity are the questions we’re asking ourselves now.  

Bullish

Gold

GC

Jan 8 2019

Commodities

Utilities

XLU

July 5 2018

Equities

2yr Notes

ZT

July 5 2018

Fixed Income Futures

10yr Notes

ZN

July 5 2018

Fixed Income Futures

30yr Bonds

ZB

July 5 2018

Fixed Income Futures

 

Bearish

Russell 2000

RTY

Feb 5 2019

Equity Futures

Financials

XLF

July 5 2018

Domestic Equities

Interest Rates

N/A

July 5 2018

Fixed Income

Actionable Levels

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bullish

2912

3019

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7848

8246

Russell 2000

Bearish

1515

1590

10yr Yield

Bearish

1.94%

2.09%

VIX

Bullish

1207

1758

Oil

Bearish

5576

61.05

Gold

Bullish

1386

1430

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.06

97.26

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

107.03

109.16

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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