Currency blow-out – the GBP/USD is being decimated, and at this point it looks like the UK is headed for a hard Brexit come Oct. Be on the look out for a drop off to 1.21-1.20 for the potential of a “double bottom”. Reviewing the currency war, the question remains who can stop the slowing first or in other words, who will be less or more dovish from meeting to meeting?
Only 2 currencies remain bullish vs the USD – the Swiss and the Yen. This week will be all about Powell and the Fed banging the gong on wed. with a 75/25% chance of a 25bps/50bps. expect 25.
Let’s check in with the executive branch on the subject matter….
This is the paranoia that exists when you anchor your presidency to market performance. If history has told us anything, its that markets will do what they want when they want to. Asian equities struggled overnight with the Heng Seng -1.0% and the KOSPI -1.70%Friday’s All-time highs came on down volume (-11% vs the 1 month Avg and -14% vs the previous day).
Oil- momentum is negative and you should stay with it. Look for bounces north of 57.00 as selling opportunities.
Gold- chances for a drop off back 1420-1415 we’d place as “high”. Don’t chase this trade, it likely won’t be that easy PLUS the USD is showing now signs of correcting/topping as it moves back to “bullish trend”. All in all, it is a very positive sign that Gold has performed well (or held up well), in light of the rising dollar phase we’re in. More as the week moves on…
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