Currency

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 10/30/2018

Posted 10/30/2018 10:12AM CTJohn Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

Trump continues to needle the Fed and their “hawkish” stance on interest rate policy, and to be quite honest, when it’s all been said and done, he’s likely going to look correct when we look back on “today”. It’ll be a big “I told you so” moment for the President. We’ve told you time and time again, the Fed is not proactive to cycles, they’re reactive, and we continue to view the market as a slow moving train wreck. Risk is high, we don’t have to tell you that, and with the mid-term elections around the corner it is increasing everyday. There’s going to be periods of massive rallies (bear market rallies tend to be quite violent to the upside), followed by periods of more “risk off”. We suspect these violent rallies are likely to continue to fail – which is why we think it’s paramount you utilize our trading ranges for your entry and exit points. 

What’s been the most disappointing thus far has been the bond market, even in light of a decent sized rally over the last two weeks off of the multi-year lows.  What’s likely going to get the bond market “going”, is when the October data is released in November.  Remember, we still have to get past a wage growth number in Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

Oil- We do suspect the oil market will begin to turn back up or bottom in the near-term as it is quickly approaching the low end of our range.  Iranian sanctions will probably be met with verbal barbs by the Mullah’s – which could scare prices back towards $70. 
Gold- We were buying lightly into yesterday’s close, and want to move to full position between 1220-1210 if the market gives us those levels. 
USD- Continues to press higher in the aftermath of eurozone gdp q/q slowdown – however, we continue to suspect the dollar is likely to encounter significant resistance at present levels. 

More to come as we move thru the week.  Good luck.

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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