What a year it’s been so far…

With approximately 1 month and a few days left of 2020, it’s definitely been a year to count your blessings and give thanks. When you look back upon the year that we’ve had, you come to realize the many misfortunes bestowed upon people across the world. I think it’s always important to look around you and be thankful for not only what you have in life, but also the PEOPLE you have in your life. For me, I’m just simply a flawed human being, putting one foot in front of the other, trying to do my job better than the day before. And of course I’m thankful for the opportunity not only that RJ O’Brien gives me, but also the confidence that you’ve bestowed upon me. As we barrel into year end, with the markets having come full circle, and seemingly (we hope) the virus as well, there’s plenty to be thankful for in terms of family, friends, and maybe most of all this year, your health. So, during your Turkey Day toasts be sure to know how lucky you are, and don’t be afraid to express your gratitude! 

Jobless claims +778K vs +730K last week – net  +48K w/w – certainly not a positive development

Stocks/Commodities: a very bullish set-up into the holiday, however some caution should be warranted as we’re beginning to build heavy implied vol DISCOUNTS in SPY, and NQ.  Typically a classic “complacency” signal that may present some downside trading action into early December. You should welcome that opportunity, because we believe it will be a fantastic buying opportunity into year end. Our call stands for Growth and Inflation accelerating into 2021, and will likely stand through the first half of next year. You must remember, in 1H2021 Macro data and Corporate profits and earnings data will be comparing y/y to the 1H of 2020 aka the pandemic lows of the market. This could be very  bullish in terms of risk assets. Utilize our levels below for your entry and exit points, and please feel free to reach out if you have questions. 

Drink up, eat up, and we’ll catch you next week! 

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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