RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight


Gold Bull Rages On, Defines New S-T Risk

Posted 06/24/2019 1:04PM CT | RJO Market Insights

Today’s break above Fri’s 1415.4 high obviously reaffirms the major uptrend and leaves Fri’s 1386.1 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low this market is now minimally required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum and stem the bull.  Per such we are identifying 1386 as our new short-term risk parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy.

Gold 240 Min Chart


Gold Daily Chart

Only a glance at the daily (above) and weekly (below) log scale charts is needed to see that the trend is up on all scales with huge former 1377-to-1350-area resistance, since broken, now considered an equally huge new support candidate.  A failure below at least 1350 in general and below 11-Jun’s 1323.6 corrective low specifically remains required to threaten our long-term bullish count.

Gold Weekly Chart


Long-term players are reminded that last week’s bust-out above Jul’16’s 1377 initial counter-trend high confirms our major, multi-year BASE/reversal count that’s been in place since Feb’16’s bullish divergence in monthly momentum first indicated the END of the secular bear market from Sep’11’s 1920 all-time high.  At this juncture it’s indeterminable whether the rally from Aug’18’s 1161 low is “just” the C-Wave of a major bear market correction OR the dramatic 3rd-Wave of a resumption of the secular bull trend to new highs above 1920.  What we DO know is that a confirmed bearish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to break the uptrend from even 02-May’s 1267.3 low is required to even defer a major bullish count, let alone threaten it.  And until or unless such a mo failure materializes, further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected.

Traders can see in the monthly log chart below that the market has reached the (1417) 50% retrace of 2011 – 2015’s bear market decline from 1920 to 1045.  But unless accompanied by a confirmed bearish divergence in momentum needed to stem the clear and present uptrend, there’s no way to know this bull won’t continue to rage to the 1523-to-1529-area defined by both the 61.8% retrace of the 2011-15 decline and the 1.000 progression of Dec’15 – Jul’16’s initial 1045 – 1377 rally from Aug’18’s 1161 low.  OR HIGHER.

These issues considered, a full and aggressive bullish policy remains advised with a failure below 1386 required to defer or threaten this call enough to warrant a move to the sidelines by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly protracted gains should not surprise.

Gold Monthly Chart

RJO Market Insights