RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Cocoa futures continue to feed the bulls. Supply and demand concerns have led this recent move higher. Will the demand for chocolate continue to prove it is strong enough to support this rally? Will cocoa production data come in lower than expected? Will the fertilizer shortage in Ivory Coast be impactful to cocoa prices? These questions will be answered in the coming months.

For now, the recent strike at the Ivory Coast port of San Pedro has futures headed to 2600. If this lasts long enough, exports will be negatively affected, and beans could be damaged.

Technically, key levels have been broken, 2550 is the next target to monitor on the upside. Cocoa prices have been lower the past few years due to demand issues mainly, but if crops are hurt during these strikes and companies continue to see chocolate purchases up we could be headed back to pre-pandemic cocoa prices. Continue to monitor this current trend the remainder of the week.

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Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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Peter Mooses

Senior Market Strategist
Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.
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