Looking at the September 10-year note we have a high of 134-17 and a low of 134-055 and currently we are trading at 134-11. Looking back this week, we have a had a few important items that have moved the treasuries. Earlier this week, we saw a very weak retail sales which many economists have predicted due to the resurgence of the delta virus that is starting to take hold across the US. So, the weak number was not much of a surprise, but for treasury bears, not welcomed news as their hopes of the Fed starting to taper might not happen as quickly as they anticipated. Yesterday, a fed governor came on tape late in the day and said he would like to see the Fed taper as early as September as he sees employment continue to gain steam. He also stated that he sees inflation at 2.5 % in 2022, which is higher than the Fed’s magic number of 2.0%.  So, what we’re seeing here this week is a clash between weaker data and a hawkish Fed governor. One market that is usually a good indicator of where treasuries might move next is the Japanese Yen. Usually when the treasuries rise, the dollar gets weak vs the yen and vice versa. When treasuries fall, usually the dollar gets strong, but what we have been seeing this week is the $ very strong against the yen and treasuries strong as well. One answer might be the Taliban taking over Kabul and the market might be seeing a geopolitical rest developing.

10-Year Note Sep ’21 Daily Chart

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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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