As we monitor cocoa futures during a shortened trading week – the front story continues to be supply and demand. European and N. American demand remains weak, Asian demand is intact and potentially strong. The dollar, euro and pound have all been indicators in the short-term of the direction of cocoa. Supply may be affected as we enter the dry season in West Africa. Port arrivals remain ahead of last year’s pace. So with currencies, weather and supply adding to cocoa volatility and recent downturn, the last month of the year could be an interesting one. Weaker equities are also pressuring the global markets. With all these factors playing a part in cocoas market moves – add-in a potential sale of Blommer Chocolate to Fuji Oil, this could affect the demand side of cocoa’s equation.

For the rest of the holiday week, look to monitor cocoa or take the sidelines until there is more news available on these developing topics.

Cocoa Mar ’19 Daily Chart

Cocoa Mar '19 Daily Chart

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.