As we monitor cocoa futures during a shortened trading week – the front story continues to be supply and demand. European and N. American demand remains weak, Asian demand is intact and potentially strong. The dollar, euro and pound have all been indicators in the short-term of the direction of cocoa. Supply may be affected as we enter the dry season in West Africa. Port arrivals remain ahead of last year’s pace. So with currencies, weather and supply adding to cocoa volatility and recent downturn, the last month of the year could be an interesting one. Weaker equities are also pressuring the global markets. With all these factors playing a part in cocoas market moves – add-in a potential sale of Blommer Chocolate to Fuji Oil, this could affect the demand side of cocoa’s equation.
For the rest of the holiday week, look to monitor cocoa or take the sidelines until there is more news available on these developing topics.
Cocoa Mar ’19 Daily Chart