The one week forecast still shows almost no rain for Argentina and Southern Brazil. However, moving out to the 8-10 day forecast, it does seem hefty rain totals for central and western Argentina. USDA attache cut forecast for soybeans to 36 million tonnes, down 9.5 million tonnes from the USDA production. Recent rains will provide help for second crop soybeans, but ideal weather in Feb will be needed for a substantial recovery.
The demand outlook has improved for soybeans with China reopening after its week long lunar New Year holiday, and outside markets (Crude, dollar, stocks) are supportive as well.
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The markets short term trend is higher on the close above the 9 day MA. Resistance is around 1545 and then 1555, while support is at 1530 and 1515.
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