In just yesterday’s Technical Blog we identified Thur’s 2356 minor corrective high as the short-term risk parameter the market needed to sustain losses below to maintain a more significant correction lower. It’s failure to do so this afternoon confirms a bullish divergence in momentum that defines yesterday’s 2317.75 low as the end of a 3-wave sequence down from 01-Mar’s 2397 high labeled in the 240-min chart below. Left unaltered by a relapse below 2317, this 3-wave sell-off attempt is considered another corrective/consolidative affair we expected within the secular bull market and re-expose the long-term uptrend. In this regard 2317 is considered our new short-term risk parameter from which a resumed bullish policy can be objectively based and managed by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.
The fact that this month’s sell-off attempt stalled at a Fibonacci minimum (2320) 23.6% retrace of Nov-Mar’s 2079 – 2401 rally shown in the daily log scale chart above would seem to evidence the underlying strength still expected of the secular bull market shown in the weekly log chart below. Larger-degree proof of weakness below 31-Jan’s next larger-degree corrective low at 2262 remains required to defer or threaten a long-term bullish policy enough to warrant a move to the sidelines by longer-term players.
These issues considered, a bullish policy remains advised for longer-term players with a failure below 2262 still required to take defensive measures. Shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles have been advised to neutralize any shorter-term bearish scalps as a result of today’s recovery above 2356 and are further advised to approach setback attempts to 2350 OB as corrective buying opportunities ahead of a possible resumption of the secular advance. A failure below 2317 is required to negate this call and warrant its cover. The 2389-to-2401-range that has capped this market as resistance remains intact and could still provide a cap ahead of further lateral but consolidative behavior in the weeks ahead. But until this market breaks our 2317 short-term risk parameter, we ultimately expect this consolidation to yield to the secular bull and new highs above 2401.