RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

-Fed Evans: “a 50bps rate hike is a reasonable assessment for the September meeting if inflation does not improve.  A 75bps increase is also Okay; I doubt 100bps will be necessary”

-Feds Daly: “My modal outlook is we raise rates and hold them there for a while”.

-Taiwan Defense Ministry: We have a thorough understanding of activity around Taiwan and will deploy forces accordingly in response to hostile threats.

– China Defense Ministry: PLA on high alert, will launch targeted military operations to counter House Rep Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan

– Pelosi visit severely impacts the China-US foundation – Xinhua

-JOLTS data: 10.7M down from 11.25M in July

*Chart ForexLive.com

As you can see, it was a very noisy day in the market.  Two sided chop for the better part of the day in the indices, and +5% in Bond yields.  The US Dollar gained 0.72% vs Major World Currencies – and from my outlook could easily retest the highs up around 1.0900.  The JOLTS (Job Openings Data) is looking like a “peak and roll” on the chart above – which could be an initial sign of a crack in the labor market.  Stay with the process headed into Risk-off into the late Aug, Sept, Oct. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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