More of the same fundamentals for the April natural gas contract | RJO FuturesPosted 03/16/2017 11:05AM CT |
April natural gas is nothing if not consistent. Underground storage was expecting a draw of over -60 bcf. We got a draw of -53 bcf. Plain English, there is a lot of natural gas available. The 5 year average draw this time of year is closer to -87. A milder than average winter has also contributed to the huge storage numbers.
A late cold spell has kept some support in the market, but it should be short lived with rising temps going into the weekend. Exports to China are not significant to buoy prices right now.
The market is currently in short term uptrend with resistance slightly above the $3.00 and above that at $3.10. Stochastics are in overbought territory and might increase the speed of move down. We may see sell offs challenge the $2.83 support level. In that event a close below support could see a washout to $2.65 or below. A close above resistance is necessary for bull forces to take control.
Seasonally, I think conservative short plays are in order. Buying puts or shorting a calendar spread would make sense in this environment.