March natural gas expires at the end of February and is moving sideways between $2.500 and $2.750.  Friday’s low of $2.543 has bottom fishers looking for a bargain near contract lows. Temperatures stay around normal for the next ten days, and precipitation continues to make this an over average winter.  The momentum indicators are turning up.  RSI is at mid-level and MACD is beginning to make a move to the upside.  This is not surprising since gas is near a bottom in price on the charts. Support comes in at the low on Friday $2.534. Below that a washout may happen. A draw of -164 bcf is today’s estimate.  Last week draw was -78 bcf.  A move to a higher range, between $2.750 and $3.000 is more likely in my opinion in the coming months.

China’s trade war with the US will figure in the cost of Natural Gas.  Their turn to cleaner power should get the bull’s in charge over the next few months.  As soon as the other tariffs are lifted we should see a return to higher prices and more exports.

Natural Gas Mar ’19 Daily Chart

Natural Gas Mar '19 Daily Chart

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Jeff Ratajczak

Jeff attended Illinois State University. In 1993 Jeff began his financial career in the stock market as a retail broker. He transitioned to futures in 1999 with LFG Intermarket Group, which became ZAP Futures. In 2004 ZAP Futures was acquired by RJO Futures' parent company R.J. O'Brien. Jeff's focus is to assist clients in managing risk and speculate through futures and options strategies.