RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

While the gold market managed to rise above last Friday’s high in the first trading session of the week yesterday, the market also saw a downside extension and it has remained close to the prior sessions low in the early going today and that leaves the technical picture in the favor of the bear camp. Fortunately for the bull camp, both gold and silver saw soft volume in the wake of weak price action yesterday, and that might suggest the bear contingent is mostly without resolve. Other issues that the bull camp might have to contend with today are ongoing US rate hike stories (there are 3 Fed speeches today), strength in the Dollar and the little in the way of fresh geopolitical angst. However, with the latest round of new all-time highs in the E-Mini S&P and the Mini Nasdaq that might pull some money away from safe haven interest instruments like gold and silver. The world’s largest gold ETF saw their holdings fall by 1.9 tonnes on Monday and reached their lowest level since April 18.

As previously indicated, we leave the edge with the bear camp in gold and silver so far, especially if the dollar remains strong again today. While some safe haven incident could arise, the number of imminent safe haven threats is much lower than were present into the April highs in June gold. I am suggesting waiting for the next downside target in June COMEX Gold at 1212.1. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area os resistance is around 1234.9 and 1243.8, while first support hits today at 1219.1 and below there at 1212.1. 


Gold 5 min Chart

Manon Lasserre