RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Having posted yet another new all-time high this morning, the trend is up on all scales with no resistance levels of any merit above it.  As the secular bull has entered totally uncharted territory, the only technical levels above the market are “derived” from past data.  And as we know, such merely derived levels as Bollinger Bands, channel lines, the ever-useless moving averages and even the vaunted Fibonacci progression relationships we cite often in our analysis have NEVER provided a reliable reason to buck a clear and present uptrend in the absence of a confirmed bearish divergence in momentum.  And they never will.

The same goes for “overbought” references simply because a stochastics or RSI level is “above 75”.  EVERY momentum indicator is FUNCTION OF the underlying market.  They react to the market and never lead it, rendering such “overbought” references as useless, risky and even irresponsible.  This is clearly a case of the “tail not wagging the dog”.

Emini Daily Chart

The daily log scale chart above and 240-min chart below show the clear and present uptrend.  The ONLY levels of any technical merit exist in the forms of prior corrective lows and former resistance-turned-support.  On the smallest of scales the 240-min chart below shows a minor corrective low at 2320 that the market is required to fail below to even defer the uptrend, let alone threaten it.  This level can be used as an objective micro risk parameter for scalpers.

From short-term perspective former 2294-area resistance and arguably a minor, minor 1st-Wave high serves as our new short-term risk parameter the market is minimally required to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count.  In this regard 2294 is considered our new short-term risk parameter to a still-advised and aggressive bullish policy.

Finally, 31-Jan’s 2262 low defines the latest larger-degree corrective low that even long-term players can use a an objective parameter from which to rebase and manage the risk of a bullish policy.

Emini 240 min Chart

Emini Weekly Chart

But even a failure below 2262 would only allow one to conclude the end of the uptrend from 04-Nov’s 2079 orthodox low to the end of last Aug-Nov’s correction.  And between 2262 and that key long-term risk parameter at 2079 stands an absolute ton of former resistance- ranging from 2192 to 2105- that serves as a huge new support candidate.  To truly threat the secular bull market, a failure below AT LEAST 2079 remains required.

These issues considered, a full and aggressive bullish policy remains advised with a failure below 2294 minimally required to take defensive steps.  Scalpers can use 2320 as a tighter risk parameter in exchange for whipsaw risk.  In lieu of such weakness further and possibly accelerated gains remain anticipated.  The market’s remaining upside potential is indeterminable and potentially extreme.

Emini Monthly Chart

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