The consensus that Trump’s agenda in Congress meant higher rates has come under assault this morning. Congress is just not an institution that moves quickly regardless of a President’s wishes, and his health, tax, and Supreme Court nominee have been held up. Coupon prices were unchanged overnight, but have exploded higher as of late, pushing yields lower as New York trading got going. The charts look as if a bull flag has been triggered, and the important ten-year yield of 2.40 has been breached placing a lot of short hedges under severe pressure. Slightly weaker economic numbers, including slowing car sales, have caused short term rates to fall adding to the bear’s woes. Looking ahead, there will be a number of fed members speaking throughout the week. Brexit concerns along with more terrorism threats, this time out of Russia, add to the nervous atmosphere sending money to risk off vehicles like the U.S. debt market. Look for the notes and bonds to continue to recover, and stocks to stall out until Congress moves on any of the administrations agenda. 


30yr Treasury Daily Chart


RJOF Editorial Team