June Dollar: French and Japanese economic data overnight should provide the dollar with an added measure of support from the fundamental perspective. It also appears as if the June dollar index has built modestly impressive consolidation pattern support zone with this week’s trade. However the dollar will face a potentially undermining US GDP and Chicago PMI data window later today. From a big picture perspective, dollar bulls will probably be disappointed as a result of the rate of growth in the US in the first quarter, but that disappointment might be counter veiled by a reading that comes in better than the anemic forecast. On the other hand competition for the dollar on the growth angle is muted in the wake of overnight data. Through the US schedule data we cant rule out a temporary dip back below a critical pivot point of 98.90, but a move above 99.20 could result in a follow through extension up. To maintain a generally upbeat vibe to end the trading week probably requires respect for 98.69.
Jun 17′ Dollar Index Daily Chart
June Euro: French economic readings overnight were discouraging but there were components within the data that showed some promise. However, traders and economist might fear additional headwinds in the period following the growth period covered by this morning’s data set and that could portend even weaker data ahead (French election influences). With the next and final stage of the French election looming ahead on May 7th it could be difficult to avoid further declines in the euro directly ahead. Therefore the bias appears to be down with an initial pivot below the market at 10877 and an even more critical pivot point support level of 108485. In order to turn the tide away from the bear tilt, probably requires a trade back above 109250.
Jun ’17 Euro FX Daily Chart