On the surface, this looks like an outstanding NFP Jobs Report. But what concerns us, is the pace of growth in this data is slowing. If you “pop the hood” on the Jobs data and it’s another year-over-year rate of change slowdown in NFP. You’re reading this and thinking to yourself, what is he talking about? Well this is what we’re talking about…
Rate of Change of Jobs Growth continues to decelerate….
-Slowdown in people hired
-Slowdown in hours worked
These 2 components ultimately translate into slower production which is ultimately a major component of GDP growth.
The Bond market gets it – 10yr yields are dropping this morning (again) to 1.58% – 30yr Bonds up over a full handle (+1’04) and the 10yr Notes trading up +14 points
Stocks: Russell 2000 (Small Caps) down -1.0% this morning; SP500 -0.45%; NASDAQ -0.58%
Gold: +5.50 to 1575.50
Our overall view of the US Economy is that we’re very late cycle. The peak of the US growth cycle was Q3 2018 just prior to the market massacre that took place in Q4 2018. Our call is for US GDP rate of change growth is expected to continue to decelerate from here.
Our suggested market positioning for a Growth Slowing/Inflation Slowing Environment:
Long US Treasuries
Long US Dollars (until the Fed signals more stimulus via rate cuts and repos)