RJO FuturesCast

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Yesterday’s break above 10-Feb’s 107.70 high reaffirms the secular bull trend and leaves Mon’s 101.00 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low this market is now required to sustain gains above to maintain a more immediate bullish count.  Its failure to do so will confirm a bearish divergence in momentum and at least interrupt the bull enough to warrant defensive measures.  Per such, this 101.00 level is considered our new short-term but key risk parameter from which all traders are advised to rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.

Admittedly, a failure below such a smaller-degree corrective low will be of an INsufficient scale to conclude a major top relative to the magnitude of the massive secular bull trend.  But the extent and uninterrupted nature of late-Jan/early-Feb’s portion of the rally renders commensurately larger-degree weakness below 28-Jan’s 93.62 next larger-degree corrective low required to break the secular bull too impractical as a risk parameter for even long-term commercial players.  Per such, we advise even longer-term players to at least pare, if not neutralize bullish exposure altogether on a failure below 101.00 and acknowledge and accept whipsaw risk- back above whatever high is left in the wake of such a sub-101.00 failure- in exchange for much deeper nominal risk below 93.62.  In lieu of weakness below 101.00, the trend is up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance.

On an even broader scale, the monthly log active-continuation chart below shows the market’s assault on the upper-quarter of its massive, historical lateral range where another total rejection should hardly come as a surprise.  This said, until the market breaks the clear and present and major but simple uptrend pattern of higher highs and higher lows with a momentum divergence below a level like 101.00, remaining upside potential is indeterminable and potentially extreme, including a run at or above last year’s 123.60 high and even 2014’s 133.37 highs.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 101.00 required to defer or threaten this call enough to warrant paring or neutralizing exposure commensurate with one’s personal risk profile.

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