RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Overnight’s rally, first above our short-term risk parameter at 16.64 and then above 25-Jul’s 16.685 high, reaffirms and reinstates our major base/reversal count from Nov’18’s 13.86 low and once again exposes further and possibly accelerated gains.  This resumed rally leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 16.365 and 15.935, respectively that now serve as our new short- and long-term risk parameters from which bullish policies and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.

Former 16.68-to-16.64-area resistance is considered new near-term support ahead of further and potentially steep gains.

The weekly log chart below shows the clear and present and major uptrend engaging the teeth of almost two solid years of roughly $16-to-$18-area lateral consolidation that cannot be ignored as a huge resistance candidate.  Herein lies the importance of identifying corrective lows and risk parameters like 15.935 and even 16.365 the market would be expected to sustain gains above per any broader bullish count.

But long-term traders are reminded of the HUGE, multi-year base/reversal count dating from Dec’15’s 13.62 low that labels the entire Jul’16 – Nov’18 sell-off attempt from 21.225 to 13.86 as a 3-wave and thus corrective structure that warns of a resumption of Dec’15 – Jul’16’s INITIAL uptrend that preceded it.  Exactly like the price action that has unfolded over the past YEAR in gold following a similar 3-wave-only, multi-year sell-off attempt, this count warns of not only continued higher prices in silver, but potentially explosive gains to new highs above Jul’16’s 21.225 high.

These issues considered, long-term players remain advised to maintain a bullish policy and exposure with a failure below 15.935 required to negate this call and warrant its cover.  Shorter-term traders whipsawed out of bullish exposure following 31-Jul’s bearish divergence in short-term momentum are advised to first approach setback attempts to 16.80 OB as corrective buying opportunities with a failure below 16.365 required to negate this call and warrant its cover.  In lieu of such sub-16.365 weakness, further and possibly steep, even relentless gains are anticipated straight away.

Today’s continued rally reinforces our overall bullish count most recently updated in Mon’s Technical Blog and leaves yesterday’s 1468.2 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low and new short-term risk parameter from which a still-advised bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.

The trend remains up on all scales with NO resistance levels of any merit above the market shy of Sep’11’s 1920 all-time high.  Again, this does not mean we’re forecasting a move to 1920.  But it certainly does mean that until and unless this market fails below recent corrective lows like 1468.2 and 01-Aug’s 1412.1 low and key long-term risk parameter, the market’s upside potential remains indeterminable and potentially severe, including a run at that 1920 all-time high.

In sum, a full and aggressive bullish policy and exposure remain advised with weakness below 1468 and/or 1412 required to pare or neutralize bullish exposure commensurate with one’s personal risk profile.

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