S&P Re-exposes Secular Bull, But… | RJO FuturesPosted 05/08/2017 8:30AM CT |
Fri’s 2399 close above 01-Mar’s 2393 previous record close and overnight’s break above 01-Mar'[s 2401 intra-day high re-exposes the secular bull market. This is a technical fact that, importantly, leaves 03-May’s 2375 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low and new short-term risk parameter the market is now minimally required to fail below to defer or threaten this call. In lieu of such sub-2375 weakness further and possibly accelerated gains should not surprise with former 2390-to-2395-area resistance considered new near-term support.
This resumed bull is not without threats however with a nicely developing POTENTIAL for a bearish divergence in momentum shown in the daily log scale chart above and the market still in the general area of its 01-Mar highs on a daily bar chart basis above and daily close-only basis below. There’s also the prospect that the past couple days’ rally is the completing 5th-Wave of a 5-wave sequence up from 17-Apr’s 2323 low that, if correct, would warn of further lateral-to-lower correction/consolidation in the weeks ahead. BUT IF the secular bull is not resuming and such further correction lies ahead, it is imperative for the market to PROVE weakness below 2375 in the days/week ahead. New highs above overnight’s 2404 high would reinforce the secular bull and expose further and possibly accelerated gains.
The combination of understandably historically bullish sentiment readings in the Bullish Consensus (marketvane.net) amidst the developing POTENTIAL for a bearish divergence in WEEKLY momentum shown above also contribute to a peak/reversal-threat environment. But here again, none of these “threats” or warning signs mean a thing until and unless the market PROVES even short-term weakness by failing below prior corrective lows like, minimally, 2375 and, commensurately, 17-Apr’s larger-degree corrective low and longer-term risk parameter at 2323.
These issues considered, a resumed bullish policy is advised from the current 2395-to-2390-range with a failure below 2375 required to move to the sidelines to circumvent the depths unknown of further lateral-to-lower consolidation. In lieu of such sub-2375 weakness further and possibly accelerated gains are expected.