This week has been a solid one for the cocoa market. News from Ivory Coast and a market set on trying to test new technical levels has given us a good volatile week. The tough question now is will this volatility continue into next week? As I pen this story, cocoa is already down 40 points as we finish up the week in what I would describe as general profit taking. News out of Ivory Coast this week describes a scene of chaos in the nations cocoa infrastructure after heavy rains washed away the main arteries leading to shipping ports. This significantly lead to worries that one would catch a log jam of cocoa and helped push the price of cocoa up to the highs of May. Furthermore, the thought that cocoa may spoil while waiting to go out of storage due to poor holding conditions have also help support prices. Next, the market needs to good solid push and close above 2100. If we cannot get that close it is going to be very difficult for the bulls to maintain control of the market. We have seen this both in May and now in June where the market gets close, but just is unable to make it past that crucial level. I would argue that in time we will make it, but until then we all live with the insecurity of potential large drops in the market. In the end, I would point to the swings the market has continued to have and ask that one imagine the opportunities in buying and selling those swings. Furthermore, there are many long options strategies that can give one piece of mind in being a long term holder of cocoa.
Sep ’17 Cocoa Daily Chart