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Energies

Tighten Nat Gas Bear Risk as Downside Progress Slows

Posted 12/27/2017 7:37AM CT | RJO Market Insights

As the pace of the past month-and-a-half’s downtrend has slowed over the past week, traders are advised once again to trail protective buy-stops on a still-advised bearish policy, this time to yesterday’s 2.766 high in the now-prompt Feb contract detailed in the 240-min chart below. A recovery above 2.766 would render it an initial counter-trend high, confirm a bullish divergence in momentum and expose at least the intermediate-term trend as up. Per such 2.766 is considered our new short-term risk parameter to a still-advised bullish policy.
natural_gas_feb18_240min_chart
natural_gas_feb18_daily_chart
In addition to the developing POTENTIAL for a bullish divergence in daily momentum above, other factors are mounting that would contribute to at least an interim base/reversal-threat environment, including:

  • the prospect that the decline from 13-Nov’s 3.321 high is a complete 5-wave Elliott sequence as labeled in the daily log chart above
  • the return to historically bearish levels in the Bullish Consensus (marketvane.net) measure of market sentiment shown in the weekly log chart of the Feb contract below, and

natural_gas_feb18_weekly_chart

  • the market’s position still around the lower boundary of this year’s 3.90-to-2.64-range on a weekly log active-continuation chart basis below.

Indeed, if there’s a time and place for this market to throw at least an interim correction at us or possibly a more extensive reversal, it is here and now and we will gauge such a recovery around yesterday’s 2.766 admittedly smaller-degree corrective high and shortr-term risk parameter.

These issues considered, a bearish policy remains advised with strength above 2.766 in the now-prompt Feb contract required to threaten this call enough to warrant moving to a neutral/sideline position and circumventing the heights unknown of a correction or reversal higher. In lieu of such 2.766+ strength further losses should not surprise.

natural_gas_weekly_chart

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