As a direct result of Thur/Fri’s continuation of the secular bull market, the 240-min chart above shows that the market has identified 24-Dec’s 3222 low as the latest smaller-degree corrective low. This is the minimum level this market needs to break to confirm a bearish divergence in very short-term momentum and expose an interim correction lower. Given the extent and magnitude of even the (suspected smaller-degree 3rd-Wave) rally from 10-Dec’s 3116 low however, even a relatively minor correction could be nominally steep. Per such, shorter-term traders are advised to exchange whipsaw risk for larger nominal risk by trailing their risk parameter to 3222.
Only a glance at the daily chart below is needed to see that a sub-3222 failure would be of too minor a scale to conclude anything more than another corrective hiccup within the secular bull. But because we see no technical levels of merit between that 3222 low and key former resistance from early-Dec around 3150 as a new support candidate, that 3222-to-3150-range is approach as a no-man’s land where speculating on the correction’s depth is a crap shoot. Preferring to err on the side of a more conservative approach to risk assumption “up here”, we believe that 3222 low serves as the best short-term risk parameter to a still-advised bullish policy at this juncture.
From a longer-term perspective, 03-Dec’s 3069 low remains intact as our key long-term risk parameter to a long-term bullish count. NO LEVEL shy of 3069 will suffice in even deferring, let alone threatening the secular bull trend.
From an even longer-term perspective, nothing has changed since late-Oct’s resumption of the secular bull market above 26-Jul’s 3030 high. MINIMALLY, the market would have to break below 03-Oct’s 2855 low to expose a major correction or reversal lower. In sum, the tend remains up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration. Traders are advised to pare or neutralize bullish exposure on a failure below an admittedly very tight risk parameter at 3222 to circumvent the depths unknown of what we’d strongly suspect at that juncture to be just another interim corrective hiccup. Such a tight risk parameter acknowledges and accepts the exchange of whipsaw risk for deeper nominal risk, where neutralized exposure would be willingly reset following another breakout to new highs that would reinstate the bull.
