The USD has largely carved out an approximate 200 point trading range since the end of 2018. With hints of an economic slowdown in U.S. growth coming to the forefront (a slowdown does not constitute a recession), and the Federal Reserve on pause and likely to become more “dovish” with their monetary policy stance in oncoming months, we’re still of the opinion the risks in the USD are largely tilted to the downside. However, the caveat to the USD trading lower (or higher) rests upon the economic conditions moving forward abroad.  In a sense, the USD is the cleanest dirty shirt in the currency drawer which has kept the USD trapped in a range of 97.30-95.30 since the end of last year. Bias: Bearish USD going forward

A treacherous drop in the Japanese yen since its bearish to bullish transition at the end of last year.  9485 was the blow off top in the yen on Jan 3 and has since slumped back to bearish trend with a more than 500 pt decline over the months of Jan and Feb.  The economic news has largely been mixed to bearish, and the BOJ has made recent mentions of being ready to redeploy economic stimulus if need be.  We’re going to go out on a little bit of limb here, because we’ve yet to see a catalyst, and suggest that worst of the worst is behind the Yen (for now), with immediate-term upside potential to 91.30-92.00.  The Yen does carry safe-haven qualities during times of global equity market uncertainty, and perhaps a correction in global stocks will bring that quality back for the Yen Bulls.  Bias: Counter-trend Bullish. 

USD Mar ’19 Daily Chart

USD Mar '19 Daily Chart

Japanese Yen Mar ’19 Daily Chart

Japanese Yen Mar '19 Daily Chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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